Alexander Hamilton's Conjectures About the New Constitution
Hamilton writes a brief essay speculating whether the Constitution will or won't be adopted, what its assets and liabilities are relative to adoption, and the various courses the country will take depending on the outcome. This is not known to have been published or distributed in its time.
"In this view of the subject it is difficult to form any judgment whether the plan will be adopted or rejected. It must be essentially matter of conjecture. The present appearances and all other circumstances considered the probability seems to be on the side of its adoption."
He offers certain possible futures based on whether the constitution is adopted or not. One scenario has a reunion with Great Britain and the establishment of a monarchy headed by an offshoot of the British Royal Family. Perhaps the most prescient is his foresight on the issue of state's rights.
"[The federal government] may then triumph altogether over the state governments and reduce them to entire subordination, dividing the large states into smaller districts. The organs of the general government may also acquire additional strength. If this should not be the case, in the course of a few years, it is probable that the contests about the boundaries of power between the particular governments and the general government and the momentum of the larger states in such contests will produce a dissolution of the Union. This after all seems to be the most likely result."
After a great deal of conjecture, Hamilton reminds himself and his audience to be humble in the face of uncertainty.
"But it is almost arrogance in so complicated a subject, depending so entirely on the incalculable fluctuations of the human passions, to attempt even a conjecture about the event. It will be Eight or Nine months before any certain judgment can be formed respecting the adoption of the Plan."